# Source code for statsmodels.tsa.statespace.kalman_filter

```
"""
State Space Representation and Kalman Filter
Author: Chad Fulton
License: Simplified-BSD
"""
from __future__ import division, absolute_import, print_function
from warnings import warn
import numpy as np
from .representation import OptionWrapper, Representation, FrozenRepresentation
from .tools import (
prefix_kalman_filter_map, validate_vector_shape, validate_matrix_shape
)
from statsmodels.tools.sm_exceptions import ValueWarning
# Define constants
FILTER_CONVENTIONAL = 0x01 # Durbin and Koopman (2012), Chapter 4
INVERT_UNIVARIATE = 0x01
SOLVE_LU = 0x02
INVERT_LU = 0x04
SOLVE_CHOLESKY = 0x08
INVERT_CHOLESKY = 0x10
STABILITY_FORCE_SYMMETRY = 0x01
MEMORY_STORE_ALL = 0
MEMORY_NO_FORECAST = 0x01
MEMORY_NO_PREDICTED = 0x02
MEMORY_NO_FILTERED = 0x04
MEMORY_NO_LIKELIHOOD = 0x08
MEMORY_CONSERVE = (
MEMORY_NO_FORECAST | MEMORY_NO_PREDICTED | MEMORY_NO_FILTERED |
MEMORY_NO_LIKELIHOOD
)
[docs]class KalmanFilter(Representation):
r"""
State space representation of a time series process, with Kalman filter
Parameters
----------
k_endog : array_like or integer
The observed time-series process :math:`y` if array like or the
number of variables in the process if an integer.
k_states : int
The dimension of the unobserved state process.
k_posdef : int, optional
The dimension of a guaranteed positive definite covariance matrix
describing the shocks in the measurement equation. Must be less than
or equal to `k_states`. Default is `k_states`.
loglikelihood_burn : int, optional
The number of initial periods during which the loglikelihood is not
recorded. Default is 0.
tolerance : float, optional
The tolerance at which the Kalman filter determines convergence to
steady-state. Default is 1e-19.
results_class : class, optional
Default results class to use to save filtering output. Default is
`FilterResults`. If specified, class must extend from `FilterResults`.
**kwargs
Keyword arguments may be used to provide values for the filter,
inversion, and stability methods. See `set_filter_method`,
`set_inversion_method`, and `set_stability_method`.
Keyword arguments may be used to provide default values for state space
matrices. See `Representation` for more details.
Notes
-----
There are several types of options available for controlling the Kalman
filter operation. All options are internally held as bitmasks, but can be
manipulated by setting class attributes, which act like boolean flags. For
more information, see the `set_*` class method documentation. The options
are:
filter_method
The filtering method controls aspects of which
Kalman filtering approach will be used.
inversion_method
The Kalman filter may contain one matrix inversion: that of the
forecast error covariance matrix. The inversion method controls how and
if that inverse is performed.
stability_method
The Kalman filter is a recursive algorithm that may in some cases
suffer issues with numerical stability. The stability method controls
what, if any, measures are taken to promote stability.
conserve_memory
By default, the Kalman filter computes a number of intermediate
matrices at each iteration. The memory conservation options control
which of those matrices are stored.
The `filter_method` and `inversion_method` options intentionally allow
the possibility that multiple methods will be indicated. In the case that
multiple methods are selected, the underlying Kalman filter will attempt to
select the optional method given the input data.
For example, it may be that INVERT_UNIVARIATE and SOLVE_CHOLESKY are
indicated (this is in fact the default case). In this case, if the
endogenous vector is 1-dimensional (`k_endog` = 1), then INVERT_UNIVARIATE
is used and inversion reduces to simple division, and if it has a larger
dimension, the Cholesky decomposition along with linear solving (rather
than explicit matrix inversion) is used. If only SOLVE_CHOLESKY had been
set, then the Cholesky decomposition method would *always* be used, even in
the case of 1-dimensional data.
See Also
--------
FilterResults
statsmodels.tsa.statespace.representation.Representation
"""
filter_methods = [
'filter_conventional'
]
filter_conventional = OptionWrapper('filter_method', FILTER_CONVENTIONAL)
"""
(bool) Flag for conventional Kalman filtering.
"""
inversion_methods = [
'invert_univariate', 'solve_lu', 'invert_lu', 'solve_cholesky',
'invert_cholesky'
]
invert_univariate = OptionWrapper('inversion_method', INVERT_UNIVARIATE)
"""
(bool) Flag for univariate inversion method (recommended).
"""
solve_lu = OptionWrapper('inversion_method', SOLVE_LU)
"""
(bool) Flag for LU and linear solver inversion method.
"""
invert_lu = OptionWrapper('inversion_method', INVERT_LU)
"""
(bool) Flag for LU inversion method.
"""
solve_cholesky = OptionWrapper('inversion_method', SOLVE_CHOLESKY)
"""
(bool) Flag for Cholesky and linear solver inversion method (recommended).
"""
invert_cholesky = OptionWrapper('inversion_method', INVERT_CHOLESKY)
"""
(bool) Flag for Cholesky inversion method.
"""
stability_methods = ['stability_force_symmetry']
stability_force_symmetry = (
OptionWrapper('stability_method', STABILITY_FORCE_SYMMETRY)
)
"""
(bool) Flag for enforcing covariance matrix symmetry
"""
memory_options = [
'memory_store_all', 'memory_no_forecast', 'memory_no_predicted',
'memory_no_filtered', 'memory_no_likelihood', 'memory_conserve'
]
memory_store_all = OptionWrapper('conserve_memory', MEMORY_STORE_ALL)
"""
(bool) Flag for storing all intermediate results in memory (default).
"""
memory_no_forecast = OptionWrapper('conserve_memory', MEMORY_NO_FORECAST)
"""
(bool) Flag to prevent storing forecasts.
"""
memory_no_predicted = OptionWrapper('conserve_memory', MEMORY_NO_PREDICTED)
"""
(bool) Flag to prevent storing predicted state and covariance matrices.
"""
memory_no_filtered = OptionWrapper('conserve_memory', MEMORY_NO_FILTERED)
"""
(bool) Flag to prevent storing filtered state and covariance matrices.
"""
memory_no_likelihood = (
OptionWrapper('conserve_memory', MEMORY_NO_LIKELIHOOD)
)
"""
(bool) Flag to prevent storing likelihood values for each observation.
"""
memory_conserve = OptionWrapper('conserve_memory', MEMORY_CONSERVE)
"""
(bool) Flag to conserve the maximum amount of memory.
"""
# Default filter options
filter_method = FILTER_CONVENTIONAL
"""
(int) Filtering method bitmask.
"""
inversion_method = INVERT_UNIVARIATE | SOLVE_CHOLESKY
"""
(int) Inversion method bitmask.
"""
stability_method = STABILITY_FORCE_SYMMETRY
"""
(int) Stability method bitmask.
"""
conserve_memory = MEMORY_STORE_ALL
"""
(int) Memory conservation bitmask.
"""
def __init__(self, k_endog, k_states, k_posdef=None,
loglikelihood_burn=0, tolerance=1e-19, results_class=None,
**kwargs):
super(KalmanFilter, self).__init__(
k_endog, k_states, k_posdef, **kwargs
)
# Setup the underlying Kalman filter storage
self._kalman_filters = {}
# Filter options
self.loglikelihood_burn = loglikelihood_burn
self.results_class = (
results_class if results_class is not None else FilterResults
)
self.set_filter_method(**kwargs)
self.set_inversion_method(**kwargs)
self.set_stability_method(**kwargs)
self.set_conserve_memory(**kwargs)
self.tolerance = tolerance
@property
def _kalman_filter(self):
prefix = self.prefix
if prefix in self._kalman_filters:
return self._kalman_filters[prefix]
return None
def _initialize_filter(self, filter_method=None, inversion_method=None,
stability_method=None, conserve_memory=None,
tolerance=None, loglikelihood_burn=None):
if filter_method is None:
filter_method = self.filter_method
if inversion_method is None:
inversion_method = self.inversion_method
if stability_method is None:
stability_method = self.stability_method
if conserve_memory is None:
conserve_memory = self.conserve_memory
if loglikelihood_burn is None:
loglikelihood_burn = self.loglikelihood_burn
if tolerance is None:
tolerance = self.tolerance
# Make sure we have endog
if self.endog is None:
raise RuntimeError('Must bind a dataset to the model before'
' filtering or smoothing.')
# Initialize the representation matrices
prefix, dtype, create_statespace = self._initialize_representation()
# Determine if we need to (re-)create the filter
# (definitely need to recreate if we recreated the _statespace object)
create_filter = create_statespace or prefix not in self._kalman_filters
if not create_filter:
kalman_filter = self._kalman_filters[prefix]
create_filter = (
not kalman_filter.conserve_memory == conserve_memory or
not kalman_filter.loglikelihood_burn == loglikelihood_burn
)
# If the dtype-specific _kalman_filter does not exist (or if we need
# to re-create it), create it
if create_filter:
if prefix in self._kalman_filters:
# Delete the old filter
del self._kalman_filters[prefix]
# Setup the filter
cls = prefix_kalman_filter_map[prefix]
self._kalman_filters[prefix] = cls(
self._statespaces[prefix], filter_method, inversion_method,
stability_method, conserve_memory, tolerance,
loglikelihood_burn
)
# Otherwise, update the filter parameters
else:
kalman_filter = self._kalman_filters[prefix]
kalman_filter.set_filter_method(filter_method, False)
kalman_filter.inversion_method = inversion_method
kalman_filter.stability_method = stability_method
kalman_filter.tolerance = tolerance
# conserve_memory and loglikelihood_burn changes always lead to
# re-created filters
return prefix, dtype, create_filter, create_statespace
[docs] def set_filter_method(self, filter_method=None, **kwargs):
"""
Set the filtering method
The filtering method controls aspects of which Kalman filtering
approach will be used.
Parameters
----------
filter_method : integer, optional
Bitmask value to set the filter method to. See notes for details.
**kwargs
Keyword arguments may be used to influence the filter method by
setting individual boolean flags. See notes for details.
Notes
-----
The filtering method is defined by a collection of boolean flags, and
is internally stored as a bitmask. Only one method is currently
available:
FILTER_CONVENTIONAL = 0x01
Conventional Kalman filter.
If the bitmask is set directly via the `filter_method` argument, then
the full method must be provided.
If keyword arguments are used to set individual boolean flags, then
the lowercase of the method must be used as an argument name, and the
value is the desired value of the boolean flag (True or False).
Note that the filter method may also be specified by directly modifying
the class attributes which are defined similarly to the keyword
arguments.
The default filtering method is FILTER_CONVENTIONAL.
Examples
--------
>>> mod = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(range(10))
>>> mod.ssm.filter_method
1
>>> mod.ssm.filter_conventional
True
>>> mod.ssm.filter_univariate = True
>>> mod.ssm.filter_method
17
>>> mod.ssm.set_filter_method(filter_univariate=False,
... filter_collapsed=True)
>>> mod.ssm.filter_method
33
>>> mod.ssm.set_filter_method(filter_method=1)
>>> mod.ssm.filter_conventional
True
>>> mod.ssm.filter_univariate
False
>>> mod.ssm.filter_collapsed
False
>>> mod.ssm.filter_univariate = True
>>> mod.ssm.filter_method
17
"""
if filter_method is not None:
self.filter_method = filter_method
for name in KalmanFilter.filter_methods:
if name in kwargs:
setattr(self, name, kwargs[name])
[docs] def set_inversion_method(self, inversion_method=None, **kwargs):
"""
Set the inversion method
The Kalman filter may contain one matrix inversion: that of the
forecast error covariance matrix. The inversion method controls how and
if that inverse is performed.
Parameters
----------
inversion_method : integer, optional
Bitmask value to set the inversion method to. See notes for
details.
**kwargs
Keyword arguments may be used to influence the inversion method by
setting individual boolean flags. See notes for details.
Notes
-----
The inversion method is defined by a collection of boolean flags, and
is internally stored as a bitmask. The methods available are:
INVERT_UNIVARIATE = 0x01
If the endogenous time series is univariate, then inversion can be
performed by simple division. If this flag is set and the time
series is univariate, then division will always be used even if
other flags are also set.
SOLVE_LU = 0x02
Use an LU decomposition along with a linear solver (rather than
ever actually inverting the matrix).
INVERT_LU = 0x04
Use an LU decomposition along with typical matrix inversion.
SOLVE_CHOLESKY = 0x08
Use a Cholesky decomposition along with a linear solver.
INVERT_CHOLESKY = 0x10
Use an Cholesky decomposition along with typical matrix inversion.
If the bitmask is set directly via the `inversion_method` argument,
then the full method must be provided.
If keyword arguments are used to set individual boolean flags, then
the lowercase of the method must be used as an argument name, and the
value is the desired value of the boolean flag (True or False).
Note that the inversion method may also be specified by directly
modifying the class attributes which are defined similarly to the
keyword arguments.
The default inversion method is `INVERT_UNIVARIATE | SOLVE_CHOLESKY`
Several things to keep in mind are:
- Cholesky decomposition is about twice as fast as LU decomposition,
but it requires that the matrix be positive definite. While this
should generally be true, it may not be in every case.
- Using a linear solver rather than true matrix inversion is generally
faster and is numerically more stable.
Examples
--------
>>> mod = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(range(10))
>>> mod.ssm.inversion_method
1
>>> mod.ssm.solve_cholesky
True
>>> mod.ssm.invert_univariate
True
>>> mod.ssm.invert_lu
False
>>> mod.ssm.invert_univariate = False
>>> mod.ssm.inversion_method
8
>>> mod.ssm.set_inversion_method(solve_cholesky=False,
... invert_cholesky=True)
>>> mod.ssm.inversion_method
16
"""
if inversion_method is not None:
self.inversion_method = inversion_method
for name in KalmanFilter.inversion_methods:
if name in kwargs:
setattr(self, name, kwargs[name])
[docs] def set_stability_method(self, stability_method=None, **kwargs):
"""
Set the numerical stability method
The Kalman filter is a recursive algorithm that may in some cases
suffer issues with numerical stability. The stability method controls
what, if any, measures are taken to promote stability.
Parameters
----------
stability_method : integer, optional
Bitmask value to set the stability method to. See notes for
details.
**kwargs
Keyword arguments may be used to influence the stability method by
setting individual boolean flags. See notes for details.
Notes
-----
The stability method is defined by a collection of boolean flags, and
is internally stored as a bitmask. The methods available are:
STABILITY_FORCE_SYMMETRY = 0x01
If this flag is set, symmetry of the predicted state covariance
matrix is enforced at each iteration of the filter, where each
element is set to the average of the corresponding elements in the
upper and lower triangle.
If the bitmask is set directly via the `stability_method` argument,
then the full method must be provided.
If keyword arguments are used to set individual boolean flags, then
the lowercase of the method must be used as an argument name, and the
value is the desired value of the boolean flag (True or False).
Note that the stability method may also be specified by directly
modifying the class attributes which are defined similarly to the
keyword arguments.
The default stability method is `STABILITY_FORCE_SYMMETRY`
Examples
--------
>>> mod = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(range(10))
>>> mod.ssm.stability_method
1
>>> mod.ssm.stability_force_symmetry
True
>>> mod.ssm.stability_force_symmetry = False
>>> mod.ssm.stability_method
0
"""
if stability_method is not None:
self.stability_method = stability_method
for name in KalmanFilter.stability_methods:
if name in kwargs:
setattr(self, name, kwargs[name])
[docs] def set_conserve_memory(self, conserve_memory=None, **kwargs):
"""
Set the memory conservation method
By default, the Kalman filter computes a number of intermediate
matrices at each iteration. The memory conservation options control
which of those matrices are stored.
Parameters
----------
conserve_memory : integer, optional
Bitmask value to set the memory conservation method to. See notes
for details.
**kwargs
Keyword arguments may be used to influence the memory conservation
method by setting individual boolean flags. See notes for details.
Notes
-----
The memory conservation method is defined by a collection of boolean
flags, and is internally stored as a bitmask. The methods available
are:
MEMORY_STORE_ALL = 0
Store all intermediate matrices. This is the default value.
MEMORY_NO_FORECAST = 0x01
Do not store the forecast, forecast error, or forecast error
covariance matrices. If this option is used, the `predict` method
from the results class is unavailable.
MEMORY_NO_PREDICTED = 0x02
Do not store the predicted state or predicted state covariance
matrices.
MEMORY_NO_FILTERED = 0x04
Do not store the filtered state or filtered state covariance
matrices.
MEMORY_NO_LIKELIHOOD = 0x08
Do not store the vector of loglikelihood values for each
observation. Only the sum of the loglikelihood values is stored.
MEMORY_CONSERVE
Do not store any intermediate matrices.
If the bitmask is set directly via the `conserve_memory` argument,
then the full method must be provided.
If keyword arguments are used to set individual boolean flags, then
the lowercase of the method must be used as an argument name, and the
value is the desired value of the boolean flag (True or False).
Note that the memory conservation method may also be specified by
directly modifying the class attributes which are defined similarly to
the keyword arguments.
The default memory conservation method is `MEMORY_STORE_ALL`, so that
all intermediate matrices are stored.
Examples
--------
>>> mod = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(range(10))
>>> mod.ssm..conserve_memory
0
>>> mod.ssm.memory_no_predicted
False
>>> mod.ssm.memory_no_predicted = True
>>> mod.ssm.conserve_memory
2
>>> mod.ssm.set_conserve_memory(memory_no_filtered=True,
... memory_no_forecast=True)
>>> mod.ssm.conserve_memory
7
"""
if conserve_memory is not None:
self.conserve_memory = conserve_memory
for name in KalmanFilter.memory_options:
if name in kwargs:
setattr(self, name, kwargs[name])
[docs] def filter(self, filter_method=None, inversion_method=None,
stability_method=None, conserve_memory=None, tolerance=None,
loglikelihood_burn=None, results=None, complex_step=False):
"""
Apply the Kalman filter to the statespace model.
Parameters
----------
filter_method : int, optional
Determines which Kalman filter to use. Default is conventional.
inversion_method : int, optional
Determines which inversion technique to use. Default is by Cholesky
decomposition.
stability_method : int, optional
Determines which numerical stability techniques to use. Default is
to enforce symmetry of the predicted state covariance matrix.
conserve_memory : int, optional
Determines what output from the filter to store. Default is to
store everything.
tolerance : float, optional
The tolerance at which the Kalman filter determines convergence to
steady-state. Default is 1e-19.
loglikelihood_burn : int, optional
The number of initial periods during which the loglikelihood is not
recorded. Default is 0.
results : class, object, or {'loglikelihood'}, optional
If a class which is a subclass of FilterResults, then that class is
instantiated and returned with the result of filtering. Classes
must subclass FilterResults.
If an object, then that object is updated with the new filtering
results.
If the string 'loglikelihood', then only the loglikelihood is
returned as an ndarray.
If None, then the default results object is updated with the
result of filtering.
"""
# Set the class to be the default results class, if None provided
if results is None:
results = self.results_class
# Initialize the filter
prefix, dtype, create_filter, create_statespace = (
self._initialize_filter(
filter_method, inversion_method, stability_method,
conserve_memory, tolerance, loglikelihood_burn
)
)
kfilter = self._kalman_filters[prefix]
# Instantiate a new results object, if required
new_results = False
if isinstance(results, type):
if not issubclass(results, FilterResults):
raise ValueError
results = results(self)
new_results = True
# Initialize the state
self._initialize_state(prefix=prefix, complex_step=complex_step)
# Run the filter
kfilter()
# We may just want the loglikelihood
if results == 'loglikelihood':
results = np.array(
self._kalman_filters[prefix].loglikelihood, copy=True
)
# Otherwise update the results object
else:
# Update the model features; unless we had to recreate the
# statespace, only update the filter options
if not new_results:
results.update_representation(self)
results.update_filter(kfilter)
return results
[docs] def loglike(self, loglikelihood_burn=None, **kwargs):
"""
Calculate the loglikelihood associated with the statespace model.
Parameters
----------
loglikelihood_burn : int, optional
The number of initial periods during which the loglikelihood is not
recorded. Default is 0.
**kwargs
Additional keyword arguments to pass to the Kalman filter. See
`KalmanFilter.filter` for more details.
Returns
-------
loglike : float
The joint loglikelihood.
"""
if self.memory_no_likelihood:
raise RuntimeError('Cannot compute loglikelihood if'
' MEMORY_NO_LIKELIHOOD option is selected.')
if loglikelihood_burn is None:
loglikelihood_burn = self.loglikelihood_burn
kwargs['results'] = 'loglikelihood'
return np.sum(self.filter(**kwargs)[loglikelihood_burn:])
[docs] def loglikeobs(self, loglikelihood_burn=None, **kwargs):
"""
Calculate the loglikelihood for each observation associated with the
statespace model.
Parameters
----------
loglikelihood_burn : int, optional
The number of initial periods during which the loglikelihood is not
recorded. Default is 0.
**kwargs
Additional keyword arguments to pass to the Kalman filter. See
`KalmanFilter.filter` for more details.
Notes
-----
If `loglikelihood_burn` is positive, then the entries in the returned
loglikelihood vector are set to be zero for those initial time periods.
Returns
-------
loglike : array of float
Array of loglikelihood values for each observation.
"""
if self.memory_no_likelihood:
raise RuntimeError('Cannot compute loglikelihood if'
' MEMORY_NO_LIKELIHOOD option is selected.')
if loglikelihood_burn is None:
loglikelihood_burn = self.loglikelihood_burn
kwargs['results'] = 'loglikelihood'
llf_obs = self.filter(**kwargs)
# Set any burned observations to have zero likelihood
llf_obs[:loglikelihood_burn] = 0
return llf_obs
[docs] def simulate(self, nsimulations, measurement_shocks=None,
state_shocks=None, initial_state=None):
r"""
Simulate a new time series following the state space model
Parameters
----------
nsimulations : int
The number of observations to simulate. If the model is
time-invariant this can be any number. If the model is
time-varying, then this number must be less than or equal to the
number
measurement_shocks : array_like, optional
If specified, these are the shocks to the measurement equation,
:math:`\varepsilon_t`. If unspecified, these are automatically
generated using a pseudo-random number generator. If specified,
must be shaped `nsimulations` x `k_endog`, where `k_endog` is the
same as in the state space model.
state_shocks : array_like, optional
If specified, these are the shocks to the state equation,
:math:`\eta_t`. If unspecified, these are automatically
generated using a pseudo-random number generator. If specified,
must be shaped `nsimulations` x `k_posdef` where `k_posdef` is the
same as in the state space model.
initial_state : array_like, optional
If specified, this is the state vector at time zero, which should
be shaped (`k_states` x 1), where `k_states` is the same as in the
state space model. If unspecified, but the model has been
initialized, then that initialization is used. If unspecified and
the model has not been initialized, then a vector of zeros is used.
Note that this is not included in the returned `simulated_states`
array.
Returns
-------
simulated_obs : array
An (nsimulations x k_endog) array of simulated observations.
simulated_states : array
An (nsimulations x k_states) array of simulated states.
"""
time_invariant = self.time_invariant
# Check for valid number of simulations
if not time_invariant and nsimulations > self.nobs:
raise ValueError('In a time-varying model, cannot create more'
' simulations than there are observations.')
# Check / generate measurement shocks
if measurement_shocks is not None:
measurement_shocks = np.array(measurement_shocks)
if measurement_shocks.ndim == 0:
measurement_shocks = measurement_shocks[np.newaxis, np.newaxis]
elif measurement_shocks.ndim == 1:
measurement_shocks = measurement_shocks[:, np.newaxis]
if not measurement_shocks.shape == (nsimulations, self.k_endog):
raise ValueError('Invalid shape of provided measurement shocks.'
' Required (%d, %d)'
% (nsimulations, self.k_endog))
elif self.shapes['obs_cov'][-1] == 1:
measurement_shocks = np.random.multivariate_normal(
mean=np.zeros(self.k_endog), cov=self['obs_cov'],
size=nsimulations)
# Check / generate state shocks
if state_shocks is not None:
state_shocks = np.array(state_shocks)
if state_shocks.ndim == 0:
state_shocks = state_shocks[np.newaxis, np.newaxis]
elif state_shocks.ndim == 1:
state_shocks = state_shocks[:, np.newaxis]
if not state_shocks.shape == (nsimulations, self.k_posdef):
raise ValueError('Invalid shape of provided state shocks.'
' Required (%d, %d).'
% (nsimulations, self.k_posdef))
elif self.shapes['state_cov'][-1] == 1:
state_shocks = np.random.multivariate_normal(
mean=np.zeros(self.k_posdef), cov=self['state_cov'],
size=nsimulations)
# Get the initial states
if initial_state is not None:
initial_state = np.array(initial_state)
if initial_state.ndim == 0:
initial_state = initial_state[np.newaxis]
elif (initial_state.ndim > 1 and
not initial_state.shape == (self.k_states, 1)):
raise ValueError('Invalid shape of provided initial state'
' vector. Required (%d, 1)' % self.k_states)
elif self.initialization == 'known':
initial_state = self._initial_state
elif self.initialization in ['approximate_diffuse', 'stationary']:
initial_state = np.zeros(self.k_states)
else:
initial_state = np.zeros(self.k_states)
return self._simulate(nsimulations, measurement_shocks, state_shocks,
initial_state)
def _simulate(self, nsimulations, measurement_shocks, state_shocks,
initial_state):
time_invariant = self.time_invariant
# Holding variables for the simulations
simulated_obs = np.zeros((nsimulations, self.k_endog),
dtype=self.dtype)
simulated_states = np.zeros((nsimulations+1, self.k_states),
dtype=self.dtype)
simulated_states[0] = initial_state
# Perform iterations to create the new time series
obs_intercept_t = 0
design_t = 0
state_intercept_t = 0
transition_t = 0
selection_t = 0
for t in range(nsimulations):
# Get the current shocks (this accomodates time-varying matrices)
if measurement_shocks is None:
measurement_shock = np.random.multivariate_normal(
mean=np.zeros(self.k_endog), cov=self['obs_cov', :, :, t])
else:
measurement_shock = measurement_shocks[t]
if state_shocks is None:
state_shock = np.random.multivariate_normal(
mean=np.zeros(self.k_posdef),
cov=self['state_cov', :, :, t])
else:
state_shock = state_shocks[t]
# Get current-iteration matrices
if not time_invariant:
obs_intercept_t = 0 if self.obs_intercept.shape[-1] == 1 else t
design_t = 0 if self.design.shape[-1] == 1 else t
state_intercept_t = (
0 if self.state_intercept.shape[-1] == 1 else t)
transition_t = 0 if self.transition.shape[-1] == 1 else t
selection_t = 0 if self.selection.shape[-1] == 1 else t
obs_intercept = self['obs_intercept', :, obs_intercept_t]
design = self['design', :, :, design_t]
state_intercept = self['state_intercept', :, state_intercept_t]
transition = self['transition', :, :, transition_t]
selection = self['selection', :, :, selection_t]
# Iterate the measurement equation
simulated_obs[t] = (
obs_intercept + np.dot(design, simulated_states[t])
+ measurement_shock)
# Iterate the state equation
simulated_states[t+1] = (
state_intercept + np.dot(transition, simulated_states[t]) +
np.dot(selection, state_shock))
return simulated_obs, simulated_states[:-1]
[docs] def impulse_responses(self, steps=10, impulse=0, orthogonalized=False,
cumulative=False, **kwargs):
"""
Impulse response function
Parameters
----------
steps : int, optional
The number of steps for which impulse responses are calculated.
Default is 10. Note that the initial impulse is not counted as a
step, so if `steps=1`, the output will have 2 entries.
impulse : int or array_like
If an integer, the state innovation to pulse; must be between 0
and `k_posdef-1` where `k_posdef` is the same as in the state
space model. Alternatively, a custom impulse vector may be
provided; must be a column vector with shape `(k_posdef, 1)`.
orthogonalized : boolean, optional
Whether or not to perform impulse using orthogonalized innovations.
Note that this will also affect custum `impulse` vectors. Default
is False.
cumulative : boolean, optional
Whether or not to return cumulative impulse responses. Default is
False.
**kwargs
If the model is time-varying and `steps` is greater than the number
of observations, any of the state space representation matrices
that are time-varying must have updated values provided for the
out-of-sample steps.
For example, if `design` is a time-varying component, `nobs` is 10,
and `steps` is 15, a (`k_endog` x `k_states` x 5) matrix must be
provided with the new design matrix values.
Returns
-------
impulse_responses : array
Responses for each endogenous variable due to the impulse
given by the `impulse` argument. A (steps + 1 x k_endog) array.
Notes
-----
Intercepts in the measurement and state equation are ignored when
calculating impulse responses.
"""
# Since the first step is the impulse itself, we actually want steps+1
steps += 1
# Check for what kind of impulse we want
if type(impulse) == int:
if impulse >= self.k_posdef or impulse < 0:
raise ValueError('Invalid value for `impulse`. Must be the'
' of one of the state innovations.')
# Create the (non-orthogonalized) impulse vector
idx = impulse
impulse = np.zeros(self.k_posdef)
impulse[idx] = 1
else:
impulse = np.array(impulse)
if impulse.ndim > 1:
impulse = np.squeeze(impulse)
if not impulse.shape == (self.k_posdef,):
raise ValueError('Invalid impulse vector. Must be shaped'
' (%d,)' % self.k_posdef)
# Orthogonalize the impulses, if requested, using Cholesky on the
# first state covariance matrix
if orthogonalized:
state_chol = np.linalg.cholesky(self.state_cov[:,:,0])
impulse = np.dot(state_chol, impulse)
# If we have a time-invariant system, we can solve for the IRF directly
if self.time_invariant:
# Get the state space matrices
design = self.design[:, :, 0]
transition = self.transition[:, :, 0]
selection = self.selection[:, :, 0]
# Holding arrays
irf = np.zeros((steps, self.k_endog), dtype=self.dtype)
states = np.zeros((steps, self.k_states), dtype=self.dtype)
# First iteration
states[0] = np.dot(selection, impulse)
irf[0] = np.dot(design, states[0])
# Iterations
for t in range(1, steps):
states[t] = np.dot(transition, states[t-1])
irf[t] = np.dot(design, states[t])
# Otherwise, create a new model
else:
# Get the basic model components
representation = {}
for name, shape in self.shapes.items():
if name in ['obs', 'obs_intercept', 'state_intercept']:
continue
representation[name] = getattr(self, name)
# Allow additional specification
warning = ('Model has time-invariant %s matrix, so the %s'
' argument to `irf` has been ignored.')
exception = ('Impulse response functions for models with'
' time-varying %s matrix requires an updated'
' time-varying matrix for any periods beyond those in'
' the original model.')
for name, shape in self.shapes.items():
if name in ['obs', 'obs_intercept', 'state_intercept']:
continue
if representation[name].shape[-1] == 1:
if name in kwargs:
warn(warning % (name, name), ValueWarning)
elif name not in kwargs:
raise ValueError(exception % name)
else:
mat = np.asarray(kwargs[name])
validate_matrix_shape(name, mat.shape, shape[0],
shape[1], nforecast)
if mat.ndim < 3 or not mat.shape[2] == nforecast:
raise ValueError(exception % name)
representation[name] = np.c_[representation[name], mat]
# Setup the new statespace representation
model_kwargs = {
'filter_method': self.filter_method,
'inversion_method': self.inversion_method,
'stability_method': self.stability_method,
'conserve_memory': self.conserve_memory,
'tolerance': self.tolerance,
'loglikelihood_burn': self.loglikelihood_burn
}
model_kwargs.update(representation)
model = KalmanFilter(np.zeros(self.endog.T.shape), self.k_states,
self.k_posdef, **model_kwargs)
model.initialize_approximate_diffuse()
model._initialize_filter()
model._initialize_state()
# Get the impulse response function via simulation of the state
# space model, but with other shocks set to zero
# Since simulate returns the zero-th period, we need to simulate
# steps + 1 periods and exclude the zero-th observation.
steps += 1
measurement_shocks = np.zeros((steps, self.k_endog))
state_shocks = np.zeros((steps, self.k_posdef))
state_shocks[0] = impulse
irf, _ = model.simulate(
steps, measurement_shocks=measurement_shocks,
state_shocks=state_shocks)
irf = irf[1:]
# Get the cumulative response if requested
if cumulative:
irf = np.cumsum(irf, axis=0)
return irf
[docs]class FilterResults(FrozenRepresentation):
"""
Results from applying the Kalman filter to a state space model.
Parameters
----------
model : Representation
A Statespace representation
Attributes
----------
nobs : int
Number of observations.
k_endog : int
The dimension of the observation series.
k_states : int
The dimension of the unobserved state process.
k_posdef : int
The dimension of a guaranteed positive definite
covariance matrix describing the shocks in the
measurement equation.
dtype : dtype
Datatype of representation matrices
prefix : str
BLAS prefix of representation matrices
shapes : dictionary of name,tuple
A dictionary recording the shapes of each of the
representation matrices as tuples.
endog : array
The observation vector.
design : array
The design matrix, :math:`Z`.
obs_intercept : array
The intercept for the observation equation, :math:`d`.
obs_cov : array
The covariance matrix for the observation equation :math:`H`.
transition : array
The transition matrix, :math:`T`.
state_intercept : array
The intercept for the transition equation, :math:`c`.
selection : array
The selection matrix, :math:`R`.
state_cov : array
The covariance matrix for the state equation :math:`Q`.
missing : array of bool
An array of the same size as `endog`, filled
with boolean values that are True if the
corresponding entry in `endog` is NaN and False
otherwise.
nmissing : array of int
An array of size `nobs`, where the ith entry
is the number (between 0 and `k_endog`) of NaNs in
the ith row of the `endog` array.
time_invariant : bool
Whether or not the representation matrices are time-invariant
initialization : str
Kalman filter initialization method.
initial_state : array_like
The state vector used to initialize the Kalamn filter.
initial_state_cov : array_like
The state covariance matrix used to initialize the Kalamn filter.
filter_method : int
Bitmask representing the Kalman filtering method
inversion_method : int
Bitmask representing the method used to
invert the forecast error covariance matrix.
stability_method : int
Bitmask representing the methods used to promote
numerical stability in the Kalman filter
recursions.
conserve_memory : int
Bitmask representing the selected memory conservation method.
tolerance : float
The tolerance at which the Kalman filter
determines convergence to steady-state.
loglikelihood_burn : int
The number of initial periods during which
the loglikelihood is not recorded.
converged : bool
Whether or not the Kalman filter converged.
period_converged : int
The time period in which the Kalman filter converged.
filtered_state : array
The filtered state vector at each time period.
filtered_state_cov : array
The filtered state covariance matrix at each time period.
predicted_state : array
The predicted state vector at each time period.
predicted_state_cov : array
The predicted state covariance matrix at each time period.
forecasts : array
The one-step-ahead forecasts of observations at each time period.
forecasts_error : array
The forecast errors at each time period.
forecasts_error_cov : array
The forecast error covariance matrices at each time period.
llf_obs : array
The loglikelihood values at each time period.
"""
_filter_attributes = [
'filter_method', 'inversion_method', 'stability_method',
'conserve_memory', 'tolerance', 'loglikelihood_burn', 'converged',
'period_converged', 'filtered_state', 'filtered_state_cov',
'predicted_state', 'predicted_state_cov',
'forecasts', 'forecasts_error', 'forecasts_error_cov',
'llf_obs'
]
_filter_options = (
KalmanFilter.filter_methods + KalmanFilter.stability_methods +
KalmanFilter.inversion_methods + KalmanFilter.memory_options
)
_attributes = FrozenRepresentation._model_attributes + _filter_attributes
def __init__(self, model):
super(FilterResults, self).__init__(model)
# Setup caches for uninitialized objects
self._kalman_gain = None
self._standardized_forecasts_error = None
[docs] def update_representation(self, model, only_options=False):
"""
Update the results to match a given model
Parameters
----------
model : Representation
The model object from which to take the updated values.
only_options : boolean, optional
If set to true, only the filter options are updated, and the state
space representation is not updated. Default is False.
Notes
-----
This method is rarely required except for internal usage.
"""
if not only_options:
super(FilterResults, self).update_representation(model)
# Save the options as boolean variables
for name in self._filter_options:
setattr(self, name, getattr(model, name, None))
[docs] def update_filter(self, kalman_filter):
"""
Update the filter results
Parameters
----------
kalman_filter : KalmanFilter
The model object from which to take the updated values.
Notes
-----
This method is rarely required except for internal usage.
"""
# State initialization
self.initial_state = np.array(
kalman_filter.model.initial_state, copy=True
)
self.initial_state_cov = np.array(
kalman_filter.model.initial_state_cov, copy=True
)
# Save Kalman filter parameters
self.filter_method = kalman_filter.filter_method
self.inversion_method = kalman_filter.inversion_method
self.stability_method = kalman_filter.stability_method
self.conserve_memory = kalman_filter.conserve_memory
self.tolerance = kalman_filter.tolerance
self.loglikelihood_burn = kalman_filter.loglikelihood_burn
# Save Kalman filter output
self.converged = bool(kalman_filter.converged)
self.period_converged = kalman_filter.period_converged
self.filtered_state = np.array(kalman_filter.filtered_state, copy=True)
self.filtered_state_cov = np.array(
kalman_filter.filtered_state_cov, copy=True
)
self.predicted_state = np.array(
kalman_filter.predicted_state, copy=True
)
self.predicted_state_cov = np.array(
kalman_filter.predicted_state_cov, copy=True
)
# Reset caches
self._kalman_gain = None
self._standardized_forecasts_error = None
# Note: use forecasts rather than forecast, so as not to interfer
# with the `forecast` methods in subclasses
self.forecasts = np.array(kalman_filter.forecast, copy=True)
self.forecasts_error = np.array(
kalman_filter.forecast_error, copy=True
)
self.forecasts_error_cov = np.array(
kalman_filter.forecast_error_cov, copy=True
)
self.llf_obs = np.array(kalman_filter.loglikelihood, copy=True)
# If there was missing data, save the original values from the Kalman
# filter output, since below will set the values corresponding to
# the missing observations to nans.
self.missing_forecasts = None
self.missing_forecasts_error = None
self.missing_forecasts_error_cov = None
if np.sum(self.nmissing) > 0:
# Copy the provided arrays (which are as the Kalman filter dataset)
# into new variables
self.missing_forecasts = np.copy(self.forecasts)
self.missing_forecasts_error = np.copy(self.forecasts_error)
self.missing_forecasts_error_cov = (
np.copy(self.forecasts_error_cov)
)
# Fill in missing values in the forecast, forecast error, and
# forecast error covariance matrix (this is required due to how the
# Kalman filter implements observations that are either partly or
# completely missing)
# Construct the predictions, forecasts
if not (self.memory_no_forecast or self.memory_no_predicted):
for t in range(self.nobs):
design_t = 0 if self.design.shape[2] == 1 else t
obs_cov_t = 0 if self.obs_cov.shape[2] == 1 else t
obs_intercept_t = 0 if self.obs_intercept.shape[1] == 1 else t
# For completely missing observations, the Kalman filter will
# produce forecasts, but forecast errors and the forecast
# error covariance matrix will be zeros - make them nan to
# improve clarity of results.
if self.nmissing[t] > 0:
mask = ~self.missing[:, t].astype(bool)
# We can recover forecasts
# For partially missing observations, the Kalman filter
# will produce all elements (forecasts, forecast errors,
# forecast error covariance matrices) as usual, but their
# dimension will only be equal to the number of non-missing
# elements, and their location in memory will be in the first
# blocks (e.g. for the forecasts_error, the first
# k_endog - nmissing[t] columns will be filled in), regardless
# of which endogenous variables they refer to (i.e. the non-
# missing endogenous variables for that observation).
# Furthermore, the forecast error covariance matrix is only
# valid for those elements. What is done is to set all elements
# to nan for these observations so that they are flagged as
# missing. The variables missing_forecasts, etc. then provide
# the forecasts, etc. provided by the Kalman filter, from which
# the data can be retrieved if desired.
self.forecasts[:, t] = np.dot(
self.design[:, :, design_t], self.predicted_state[:, t]
) + self.obs_intercept[:, obs_intercept_t]
self.forecasts_error[:, t] = np.nan
self.forecasts_error[mask, t] = (
self.endog[mask, t] - self.forecasts[mask, t])
self.forecasts_error_cov[:, :, t] = np.dot(
np.dot(self.design[:, :, design_t],
self.predicted_state_cov[:, :, t]),
self.design[:, :, design_t].T
) + self.obs_cov[:, :, obs_cov_t]
@property
def kalman_gain(self):
"""
Kalman gain matrices
"""
if self._kalman_gain is None:
# k x n
self._kalman_gain = np.zeros(
(self.k_states, self.k_endog, self.nobs), dtype=self.dtype)
for t in range(self.nobs):
# In the case of entirely missing observations, let the Kalman
# gain be zeros.
if self.nmissing[t] == self.k_endog:
continue
design_t = 0 if self.design.shape[2] == 1 else t
transition_t = 0 if self.transition.shape[2] == 1 else t
if self.nmissing[t] == 0:
self._kalman_gain[:, :, t] = np.dot(
np.dot(
self.transition[:, :, transition_t],
self.predicted_state_cov[:, :, t]
),
np.dot(
np.transpose(self.design[:, :, design_t]),
np.linalg.inv(self.forecasts_error_cov[:, :, t])
)
)
else:
mask = ~self.missing[:, t].astype(bool)
n = self.k_endog - self.nmissing[t]
F = self.forecasts_error_cov[np.ix_(mask, mask, [t])]
self._kalman_gain[:, mask, t] = np.dot(
np.dot(
self.transition[:, :, transition_t],
self.predicted_state_cov[:, :, t]
),
np.dot(
np.transpose(self.design[mask, :, design_t]),
np.linalg.inv(F[:, :, 0])
)
)
return self._kalman_gain
@property
def standardized_forecasts_error(self):
"""
Standardized forecast errors
"""
if self._standardized_forecasts_error is None:
from scipy import linalg
self._standardized_forecasts_error = np.zeros(
self.forecasts_error.shape, dtype=self.dtype)
for t in range(self.forecasts_error_cov.shape[2]):
if self.nmissing[t] > 0:
self._standardized_forecasts_error[:, t] = np.nan
if self.nmissing[t] < self.k_endog:
mask = ~self.missing[:, t].astype(bool)
F = self.forecasts_error_cov[np.ix_(mask, mask, [t])]
upper, _ = linalg.cho_factor(F[:, :, 0])
self._standardized_forecasts_error[mask, t] = (
linalg.solve_triangular(
upper, self.forecasts_error[mask, t]
)
)
return self._standardized_forecasts_error
[docs] def predict(self, start=None, end=None, dynamic=None, **kwargs):
"""
In-sample and out-of-sample prediction for state space models generally
Parameters
----------
start : int, optional
Zero-indexed observation number at which to start forecasting,
i.e., the first forecast will be at start.
end : int, optional
Zero-indexed observation number at which to end forecasting, i.e.,
the last forecast will be at end.
dynamic : int, optional
Offset relative to `start` at which to begin dynamic prediction.
Prior to this observation, true endogenous values will be used for
prediction; starting with this observation and continuing through
the end of prediction, forecasted endogenous values will be used
instead.
**kwargs
If the prediction range is outside of the sample range, any
of the state space representation matrices that are time-varying
must have updated values provided for the out-of-sample range.
For example, of `obs_intercept` is a time-varying component and
the prediction range extends 10 periods beyond the end of the
sample, a (`k_endog` x 10) matrix must be provided with the new
intercept values.
Returns
-------
results : PredictionResults
A PredictionResults object.
Notes
-----
All prediction is performed by applying the deterministic part of the
measurement equation using the predicted state variables.
Out-of-sample prediction first applies the Kalman filter to missing
data for the number of periods desired to obtain the predicted states.
"""
# Cannot predict if we do not have appropriate arrays
if self.memory_no_forecast or self.memory_no_predicted:
raise ValueError('Predict is not possible if memory conservation'
' has been used to avoid storing forecasts or'
' predicted values.')
# Get the start and the end of the entire prediction range
if start is None:
start = 0
elif start < 0:
raise ValueError('Cannot predict values previous to the sample.')
if end is None:
end = self.nobs
# Prediction and forecasting is performed by iterating the Kalman
# Kalman filter through the entire range [0, end]
# Then, everything is returned corresponding to the range [start, end].
# In order to perform the calculations, the range is separately split
# up into the following categories:
# - static: (in-sample) the Kalman filter is run as usual
# - dynamic: (in-sample) the Kalman filter is run, but on missing data
# - forecast: (out-of-sample) the Kalman filter is run, but on missing
# data
# Short-circuit if end is before start
if end <= start:
raise ValueError('End of prediction must be after start.')
# Get the number of forecasts to make after the end of the sample
nforecast = max(0, end - self.nobs)
# Get the number of dynamic prediction periods
# If `dynamic=True`, then assume that we want to begin dynamic
# prediction at the start of the sample prediction.
if dynamic is True:
dynamic = 0
# If `dynamic=False`, then assume we want no dynamic prediction
if dynamic is False:
dynamic = None
ndynamic = 0
if dynamic is not None:
# Replace the relative dynamic offset with an absolute offset
dynamic = start + dynamic
# Validate the `dynamic` parameter
if dynamic < 0:
raise ValueError('Dynamic prediction cannot begin prior to the'
' first observation in the sample.')
elif dynamic > end:
warn('Dynamic prediction specified to begin after the end of'
' prediction, and so has no effect.', ValueWarning)
dynamic = None
elif dynamic > self.nobs:
warn('Dynamic prediction specified to begin during'
' out-of-sample forecasting period, and so has no'
' effect.', ValueWarning)
dynamic = None
# Get the total size of the desired dynamic forecasting component
# Note: the first `dynamic` periods of prediction are actually
# *not* dynamic, because dynamic prediction begins at observation
# `dynamic`.
if dynamic is not None:
ndynamic = max(0, min(end, self.nobs) - dynamic)
# Get the number of in-sample static predictions
nstatic = min(end, self.nobs) if dynamic is None else dynamic
# Construct the design and observation intercept and covariance
# matrices for start-npadded:end. If not time-varying in the original
# model, then they will be copied over if none are provided in
# `kwargs`. Otherwise additional matrices must be provided in `kwargs`.
representation = {}
for name, shape in self.shapes.items():
if name == 'obs':
continue
representation[name] = getattr(self, name)
# Update the matrices from kwargs for forecasts
warning = ('Model has time-invariant %s matrix, so the %s'
' argument to `predict` has been ignored.')
exception = ('Forecasting for models with time-varying %s matrix'
' requires an updated time-varying matrix for the'
' period to be forecasted.')
if nforecast > 0:
for name, shape in self.shapes.items():
if name == 'obs':
continue
if representation[name].shape[-1] == 1:
if name in kwargs:
warn(warning % (name, name), ValueWarning)
elif name not in kwargs:
raise ValueError(exception % name)
else:
mat = np.asarray(kwargs[name])
if len(shape) == 2:
validate_vector_shape(name, mat.shape,
shape[0], nforecast)
if mat.ndim < 2 or not mat.shape[1] == nforecast:
raise ValueError(exception % name)
representation[name] = np.c_[representation[name], mat]
else:
validate_matrix_shape(name, mat.shape, shape[0],
shape[1], nforecast)
if mat.ndim < 3 or not mat.shape[2] == nforecast:
raise ValueError(exception % name)
representation[name] = np.c_[representation[name], mat]
# Update the matrices from kwargs for dynamic prediction in the case
# that `end` is less than `nobs` and `dynamic` is less than `end`. In
# this case, any time-varying matrices in the default `representation`
# will be too long, causing an error to be thrown below in the
# KalmanFilter(...) construction call, because the endog has length
# nstatic + ndynamic + nforecast, whereas the time-varying matrices
# from `representation` have length nobs.
if ndynamic > 0 and end < self.nobs:
for name, shape in self.shapes.items():
if not name == 'obs' and representation[name].shape[-1] > 1:
representation[name] = representation[name][..., :end]
# Construct the predicted state and covariance matrix for each time
# period depending on whether that time period corresponds to
# one-step-ahead prediction, dynamic prediction, or out-of-sample
# forecasting.
# If we only have simple prediction, then we can use the already saved
# Kalman filter output
if ndynamic == 0 and nforecast == 0:
results = self
else:
# Construct the new endogenous array.
endog = np.empty((self.k_endog, ndynamic + nforecast))
endog.fill(np.nan)
endog = np.asfortranarray(np.c_[self.endog[:, :nstatic], endog])
# Setup the new statespace representation
model_kwargs = {
'filter_method': self.filter_method,
'inversion_method': self.inversion_method,
'stability_method': self.stability_method,
'conserve_memory': self.conserve_memory,
'tolerance': self.tolerance,
'loglikelihood_burn': self.loglikelihood_burn
}
model_kwargs.update(representation)
model = KalmanFilter(
endog, self.k_states, self.k_posdef, **model_kwargs
)
model.initialize_known(
self.initial_state,
self.initial_state_cov
)
model._initialize_filter()
model._initialize_state()
results = self._predict(nstatic, ndynamic, nforecast, model)
return PredictionResults(results, start, end, nstatic, ndynamic,
nforecast)
def _predict(self, nstatic, ndynamic, nforecast, model):
# TODO: this doesn't use self, and can either be a static method or
# moved outside the class altogether.
# Get the underlying filter
kfilter = model._kalman_filter
# Save this (which shares memory with the memoryview on which the
# Kalman filter will be operating) so that we can replace actual data
# with predicted data during dynamic forecasting
endog = model._representations[model.prefix]['obs']
# print(nstatic, ndynamic, nforecast, model.nobs)
for t in range(kfilter.model.nobs):
# Run the Kalman filter for the first `nstatic` periods (for
# which dynamic computation will not be performed)
if t < nstatic:
next(kfilter)
# Perform dynamic prediction
elif t < nstatic + ndynamic:
design_t = 0 if model.design.shape[2] == 1 else t
obs_intercept_t = 0 if model.obs_intercept.shape[1] == 1 else t
# Unconditional value is the intercept (often zeros)
endog[:, t] = model.obs_intercept[:, obs_intercept_t]
# If t > 0, then we can condition the forecast on the state
if t > 0:
# Predict endog[:, t] given `predicted_state` calculated in
# previous iteration (i.e. t-1)
endog[:, t] += np.dot(
model.design[:, :, design_t],
kfilter.predicted_state[:, t]
)
# Advance Kalman filter
next(kfilter)
# Perform any (one-step-ahead) forecasting
else:
next(kfilter)
# Return the predicted state and predicted state covariance matrices
results = FilterResults(model)
results.update_filter(kfilter)
return results
class PredictionResults(FilterResults):
"""
Results of in-sample and out-of-sample prediction for state space models
generally
Parameters
----------
results : FilterResults
Output from filtering, corresponding to the prediction desired
start : int
Zero-indexed observation number at which to start forecasting,
i.e., the first forecast will be at start.
end : int
Zero-indexed observation number at which to end forecasting, i.e.,
the last forecast will be at end.
nstatic : int
Number of in-sample static predictions (these are always the first
elements of the prediction output).
ndynamic : int
Number of in-sample dynamic predictions (these always follow the static
predictions directly, and are directly followed by the forecasts).
nforecast : int
Number of in-sample forecasts (these always follow the dynamic
predictions directly).
Attributes
----------
npredictions : int
Number of observations in the predicted series; this is not necessarily
the same as the number of observations in the original model from which
prediction was performed.
start : int
Zero-indexed observation number at which to start prediction,
i.e., the first predict will be at `start`; this is relative to the
original model from which prediction was performed.
end : int
Zero-indexed observation number at which to end prediction,
i.e., the last predict will be at `end`; this is relative to the
original model from which prediction was performed.
nstatic : int
Number of in-sample static predictions.
ndynamic : int
Number of in-sample dynamic predictions.
nforecast : int
Number of in-sample forecasts.
endog : array
The observation vector.
design : array
The design matrix, :math:`Z`.
obs_intercept : array
The intercept for the observation equation, :math:`d`.
obs_cov : array
The covariance matrix for the observation equation :math:`H`.
transition : array
The transition matrix, :math:`T`.
state_intercept : array
The intercept for the transition equation, :math:`c`.
selection : array
The selection matrix, :math:`R`.
state_cov : array
The covariance matrix for the state equation :math:`Q`.
filtered_state : array
The filtered state vector at each time period.
filtered_state_cov : array
The filtered state covariance matrix at each time period.
predicted_state : array
The predicted state vector at each time period.
predicted_state_cov : array
The predicted state covariance matrix at each time period.
forecasts : array
The one-step-ahead forecasts of observations at each time period.
forecasts_error : array
The forecast errors at each time period.
forecasts_error_cov : array
The forecast error covariance matrices at each time period.
Notes
-----
The provided ranges must be conformable, meaning that it must be that
`end - start == nstatic + ndynamic + nforecast`.
This class is essentially a view to the FilterResults object, but
returning the appropriate ranges for everything.
"""
representation_attributes = [
'endog', 'design', 'design', 'obs_intercept',
'obs_cov', 'transition', 'state_intercept', 'selection',
'state_cov'
]
filter_attributes = [
'filtered_state', 'filtered_state_cov',
'predicted_state', 'predicted_state_cov',
'forecasts', 'forecasts_error', 'forecasts_error_cov'
]
def __init__(self, results, start, end, nstatic, ndynamic, nforecast):
from scipy import stats
# Save the filter results object
self.results = results
# Save prediction ranges
self.npredictions = start - end
self.start = start
self.end = end
self.nstatic = nstatic
self.ndynamic = ndynamic
self.nforecast = nforecast
def __getattr__(self, attr):
"""
Provide access to the representation and filtered output in the
appropriate range (`start` - `end`).
"""
# Prevent infinite recursive lookups
if attr[0] == '_':
raise AttributeError("'%s' object has no attribute '%s'" %
(self.__class__.__name__, attr))
_attr = '_' + attr
# Cache the attribute
if not hasattr(self, _attr):
if attr == 'endog' or attr in self.filter_attributes:
# Get a copy
value = getattr(self.results, attr).copy()
# Subset to the correct time frame
value = value[..., self.start:self.end]
elif attr in self.representation_attributes:
value = getattr(self.results, attr).copy()
# If a time-invariant matrix, return it. Otherwise, subset to
# the correct period.
if value.shape[-1] == 1:
value = value[..., 0]
else:
value = value[..., self.start:self.end]
else:
raise AttributeError("'%s' object has no attribute '%s'" %
(self.__class__.__name__, attr))
setattr(self, _attr, value)
return getattr(self, _attr)
```