statsmodels.tsa.forecasting.theta.ThetaModelResults.forecast_components

ThetaModelResults.forecast_components(steps=1)[source]

Compute the three components of the Theta model forecast

Parameters
stepsint

The number of steps ahead to compute the forecast components.

Returns
DataFrame

A DataFrame with three columns: trend, ses and seasonal containing the forecast values of each of the three components.

Notes

For a given value of \(\theta\), the deseasonalized forecast is fcast = w * trend + ses where \(w = \frac{theta - 1}{theta}\). The reseasonalized forecasts are then seasonal * fcast if the seasonality is multiplicative or seasonal + fcast if the seasonality is additive.